{ "verdicts": [ { "canonical_ticker": "AAPL", "display_name": "AAPL", "decision_source": "RULE+DEEP", "thesis_strength": 0.64, "timing_readiness": 0.38, "trigger_type": "breakout_confirmation", "trigger_horizon": "days_to_weeks", "trigger_quality": 0.74, "thesis_state": "constructive_but_not_confirmed", "semantic_summary": "AAPL thesis is constructive but current timing is not confirmed. Price has recovered above short-term and 200-day references with MACD improving, but it remains below the 50-day SMA and recent resistance around 260.86-262.19. New exposure should wait for a daily close above 262.20 with volume expansion, or a controlled support retest near 254.87 VWMA / 251-252 with reversal quality.", "counter_evidence": [ "Current price remains below the 50-day SMA near 260.86 and recent high/resistance near 262.19.", "Entry action is explicitly WAIT and setup quality is DEVELOPING, not confirmed.", "Valuation and volatility limit safety margin, with ATR around 5.68 and elevated PER/PBR references.", "A daily close below 251 or failure of the 200-day SMA near 250.89 would invalidate the tactical recovery thesis.", "Earnings, margin, tariff, services growth, and regulatory risks remain unresolved event dependencies." ], "reason_codes": [ "bullish_stance_but_wait_entry", "developing_setup", "price_below_key_resistance", "explicit_breakout_trigger_required", "volume_confirmation_required", "support_retest_alternative", "defined_downside_invalidation", "event_risk_pending" ], "review_required": false }, { "canonical_ticker": "ETHU", "display_name": "ETHU", "decision_source": "RULE+DEEP", "thesis_strength": 0.62, "timing_readiness": 0.36, "trigger_type": "breakout_confirmation", "trigger_horizon": "days_to_weeks", "trigger_quality": 0.68, "thesis_state": "constructive_but_not_confirmed", "semantic_summary": "ETHU has a constructive but still developing rebound thesis: price recovered above short-term reference levels, MACD has turned positive, RSI is not overbought, and recent inflows support tactical interest. Timing is not actionable yet because the plan explicitly requires either a confirmed daily close above 25.90-26.00 on stronger volume or a controlled support hold near 24.65/23.50-23.10 before any starter entry.", "counter_evidence": [ "Entry action is WAIT and suggested action now is WATCH, not buy.", "ETHU remains far below the 200 SMA near 79 and the 50 SMA is still falling.", "25.90-26.00 resistance has not been confirmed as broken with volume.", "2x Ether structure increases path dependency, drawdown risk, and timing sensitivity.", "Data quality is imperfect, with fallback_count 7, no disclosures, news-derived social signal, and no intraday snapshot used." ], "reason_codes": [ "constructive_rebound_setup", "entry_wait_required", "breakout_needs_volume_confirmation", "support_hold_alternative_trigger", "leveraged_etf_timing_risk", "major_trend_still_damaged", "data_health_mixed" ], "review_required": false }, { "canonical_ticker": "ETN", "display_name": "ETN", "decision_source": "RULE+DEEP", "thesis_strength": 0.72, "timing_readiness": 0.36, "trigger_type": "breakout_confirmation", "trigger_horizon": "days_to_weeks", "trigger_quality": 0.64, "thesis_state": "constructive_but_not_confirmed", "semantic_summary": "ETN has a constructive medium-term bullish thesis supported by trend recovery, improving MACD, strong recent fundamentals, FCF, and data-center/power infrastructure demand. Timing is not ready for immediate entry because the stock is extended near 407-408 resistance and 52-week highs with elevated RSI/ATR; action should remain watch-only until a volume-backed daily close above 407-408 or a controlled pullback holding near 386 confirms entry quality.", "counter_evidence": [ "Entry action is explicitly WAIT and setup quality is DEVELOPING, not actionable now.", "Price is near 407-408 resistance and 52-week highs, creating poor immediate asymmetry.", "RSI around 67 and ATR around 12.7 imply elevated momentum/volatility risk.", "Upside toward 415-420 appears limited versus downside reference levels at 386, 374-369, and 369 invalidation.", "Earnings/orders/margins/FCF and demand commentary still need confirmation to justify premium valuation.", "Data coverage is limited, with only one company news item, no disclosures, fallback tool results, and token usage unavailable." ], "reason_codes": [ "bullish_medium_term_thesis", "entry_wait_explicit", "developing_setup", "breakout_confirmation_required", "resistance_near_52_week_high", "elevated_rsi_atr", "volume_confirmation_missing", "pullback_confirmation_alternative", "earnings_confirmation_pending", "valuation_sensitivity", "limited_data_coverage" ], "review_required": false }, { "canonical_ticker": "FANG", "display_name": "FANG", "decision_source": "RULE+DEEP", "thesis_strength": 0.62, "timing_readiness": 0.34, "trigger_type": "breakout_confirmation", "trigger_horizon": "days_to_weeks", "trigger_quality": 0.68, "thesis_state": "constructive_but_not_confirmed", "semantic_summary": "FANG has a constructive medium-term thesis supported by price remaining above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, solid EBITDA/free cash flow, debt reduction, and potential oil/geopolitical upside. Timing is not yet actionable because price remains below the 10-day EMA and VWMA, RSI is below 50, MACD histogram is negative, and the plan explicitly calls for waiting until a daily close above 190.01 with RSI recovery, preferably above 193.36 with volume and momentum improvement.", "counter_evidence": [ "Current price remains below the 10-day EMA near 190.01 and VWMA near 193.36.", "RSI is below 50 and MACD histogram remains negative, indicating short-term momentum has not recovered.", "Recent rebound volume has not fully offset the prior high-volume selloff.", "Oil sensitivity, elevated ATR, earnings risk, leverage, low current ratio, and negative working capital argue against full or immediate sizing.", "A break below 175.14, especially on expanding volume, would tactically invalidate the setup." ], "reason_codes": [ "constructive_medium_term_thesis", "entry_action_wait", "breakout_confirmation_required", "momentum_not_confirmed", "below_short_term_averages", "rsi_below_50", "negative_macd_histogram", "reduced_starter_only_if_triggered", "clear_numeric_triggers", "commodity_and_earnings_risk" ], "review_required": false }, { "canonical_ticker": "GEV", "display_name": "GEV", "decision_source": "RULE+DEEP", "thesis_strength": 0.72, "timing_readiness": 0.38, "trigger_type": "breakout_confirmation", "trigger_horizon": "days_to_weeks", "trigger_quality": 0.66, "thesis_state": "constructive_but_not_confirmed", "semantic_summary": "GEV has a constructive medium-term thesis from AI/data-center power demand, gas turbine scarcity, grid and transformer bottlenecks, and an intact uptrend above key moving averages. However, the entry is explicitly WAIT because price is extended into the 999.43-1007.38 resistance area after a sharp run, with RSI near overbought, high ATR, fading high-level volume, and slight MACD histogram weakening. Actionability depends on confirmation: a daily close above 1007.38 with volume and renewed momentum, or a controlled pullback holding 944-952 and reclaiming the 10-day EMA.", "counter_evidence": [ "Entry action is WAIT and suggested action now is WATCH, not immediate buy.", "Price is near the 999.43-1007.38 resistance zone after a sharp move from 817.35 to 991.12.", "RSI 68.42, ATR around 38.56, fading volume near highs, and slight MACD histogram softening argue against chasing.", "High valuation metrics and Vineyard Wind, Prolec integration, working-capital, inventory, receivables, and current-ratio risks limit sizing.", "No disclosure coverage and several data fallbacks reduce confidence in full confirmation." ], "reason_codes": [ "constructive_structural_thesis", "entry_wait_state", "breakout_not_confirmed", "extended_near_resistance", "momentum_volume_divergence", "pullback_alternative_trigger", "risk_controls_defined", "valuation_and_execution_risk" ], "review_required": false }, { "canonical_ticker": "TSM", "display_name": "TSM", "decision_source": "RULE+DEEP", "thesis_strength": 0.72, "timing_readiness": 0.38, "trigger_type": "breakout_confirmation", "trigger_horizon": "days_to_weeks", "trigger_quality": 0.66, "thesis_state": "constructive_but_not_confirmed", "semantic_summary": "TSM has a constructive medium-term bullish thesis supported by strong AI-linked revenue growth, high margins, trend recovery above key moving averages, and improving MACD. However, the recommended action is still WAIT because price is near Bollinger and prior-high resistance after a sharp rebound, volume confirmation is incomplete, and earnings/guidance expectations are elevated. Actionability depends on either a volume-backed close above 378.90 or a controlled pullback that confirms support around 359.54-351.56.", "counter_evidence": [ "Entry action is explicitly WAIT and setup quality is DEVELOPING, not confirmed.", "Price is close to resistance at 378.90 and the prior 384.67-386.64 high zone after a sharp rebound from 316.50.", "Recent volume after the April 8 spike appears to have faded toward the 9 million share range, so breakout demand still needs confirmation.", "Elevated ATR and earnings/event risk make immediate chase entries less attractive.", "Disclosures coverage is absent and several data vendors used fallbacks, reducing confidence in timing precision." ], "reason_codes": [ "bullish_thesis_but_wait_action", "developing_setup", "resistance_nearby", "volume_confirmation_required", "support_or_breakout_trigger_needed", "elevated_volatility", "event_expectations_high", "partial_data_gaps" ], "review_required": false }, { "canonical_ticker": "VRT", "display_name": "VRT", "decision_source": "RULE+DEEP", "thesis_strength": 0.72, "timing_readiness": 0.38, "trigger_type": "breakout_confirmation", "trigger_horizon": "days_to_weeks", "trigger_quality": 0.76, "thesis_state": "constructive_but_not_confirmed", "semantic_summary": "VRT has a constructive medium-term thesis supported by trend, momentum, AI data-center demand, improving fundamentals, S&P 500 inclusion, acquisition optionality, and analyst revisions. However, the current action is explicitly WAIT because price is extended and overbought near 310.51 after a sharp rebound. A starter position only becomes actionable after a confirmed volume-backed close above 312.46 or a controlled pullback holding 299.96/295.11 and reversing higher.", "counter_evidence": [ "Entry action is WAIT, not buy; setup is still developing.", "Price has rebounded about 32.6% from the 234.22 area to 310.51, creating poor short-term asymmetry.", "RSI near 70.99 and ATR around 13.92 indicate overbought and volatile conditions.", "Current price is extended above the 10 EMA near 283.14 and 50 SMA near 250.12.", "Valuation is demanding, with high trailing P/E and P/B, and some analyst targets such as 300 are below the latest close.", "Intraday same-day snapshot is missing and disclosures coverage is absent." ], "reason_codes": [ "bullish_medium_term_thesis", "entry_wait_state", "breakout_needs_volume_confirmation", "overbought_after_sharp_rebound", "explicit_price_volume_trigger", "pullback_support_alternative", "valuation_and_volatility_risk", "data_quality_limitations" ], "review_required": false }, { "canonical_ticker": "VXUS", "display_name": "VXUS", "decision_source": "RULE+DEEP", "thesis_strength": 0.68, "timing_readiness": 0.38, "trigger_type": "watch_only", "trigger_horizon": "days_to_weeks", "trigger_quality": 0.58, "thesis_state": "constructive_but_not_confirmed", "semantic_summary": "VXUS has a constructive medium-term allocation thesis, with price back above key moving averages and improving MACD, but the entry timing is not confirmed. The plan explicitly says to wait rather than chase near resistance, preferring either a controlled retest and rebound around 80.10-79.70 or a confirmed 82.90 breakout with above-average volume before starting a small position.", "counter_evidence": [ "Entry action is WAIT and setup quality is DEVELOPING, not actionable now.", "Price is near the 82.90 breakout level and 84.11-84.28 resistance zone after a sharp rebound from 74.71 to 82.81.", "RSI has risen quickly to 66.06 and could become overbought near resistance without volume confirmation.", "ATR remains elevated, requiring reduced sizing and volatility-aware stops.", "Intraday same-day snapshot is missing and vendor fallbacks were used." ], "reason_codes": [ "constructive_medium_term_thesis", "entry_action_wait", "setup_developing", "confirmation_required", "near_resistance", "elevated_rsi", "high_atr", "specific_trigger_levels_defined", "intraday_snapshot_missing" ], "review_required": false } ] }