{ "verdicts": [ { "canonical_ticker": "000660.KS", "display_name": "SK하이닉스", "decision_source": "RULE+DEEP", "thesis_strength": 0.68, "timing_readiness": 0.42, "trigger_type": "breakout_confirmation", "trigger_horizon": "days_to_weeks", "trigger_quality": 0.76, "thesis_state": "constructive_but_not_confirmed", "semantic_summary": "SK하이닉스 thesis is constructive with bullish portfolio stance, recovering momentum, and clear AI/HBM memory catalysts, but the timing is not yet confirmed. The plan explicitly says to hold existing exposure and avoid chasing until either 968000-970000 support is defended on stable volume or 1096000-1099000 resistance is cleared on a closing basis with stronger volume. Because current evidence emphasizes fading volume near resistance and pending earnings/IR confirmation, this remains a watch/hold setup rather than an actionable add.", "counter_evidence": [ "Entry action is WAIT and rating is NO_TRADE despite bullish stance.", "Price is near 1096000-1099000 resistance and the Bollinger upper band, increasing rejection risk.", "Volume faded from 6709356 shares on 2026-04-08 to 2769753 shares on 2026-04-13, weakening breakout confirmation.", "Reported intraday highs around 1121500-1128000 are explicitly not sufficient without closing confirmation and strong volume.", "Q1 results, IR guidance, HBM demand, memory pricing, margins, and capex discipline still need to validate elevated expectations.", "Close below 927000-929000 would invalidate the rebound setup." ], "reason_codes": [ "bullish_thesis_but_wait", "breakout_not_confirmed", "volume_confirmation_missing", "near_resistance_zone", "support_retest_alternative", "event_confirmation_pending", "held_position_hold_only", "clear_invalidation_level" ], "review_required": false }, { "canonical_ticker": "005380.KS", "display_name": "현대차", "decision_source": "RULE+DEEP", "thesis_strength": 0.62, "timing_readiness": 0.38, "trigger_type": "breakout_confirmation", "trigger_horizon": "days_to_weeks", "trigger_quality": 0.74, "thesis_state": "constructive_but_not_confirmed", "semantic_summary": "현대차에 대한 중기 관점은 장기 추세 유지, 낮은 forward PER, Genesis 및 미래 모빌리티 선택권으로 건설적이지만, 현재 가격은 10일 EMA/VWMA와 50일 SMA 아래에 있고 RSI도 50 미만이라 즉시 증액 타이밍은 확인되지 않았다. 보유자는 핵심 보유는 가능하나 신규 또는 추가 매수는 484400 상회 종가와 평균 이상 거래량, 더 강하게는 508500 회복 유지가 필요하다.", "counter_evidence": [ "현재 종가가 10일 EMA, VWMA, 50일 SMA 아래에 있어 단기 추세 확인이 부족하다.", "RSI가 아직 50 미만이고 ATR이 가격 대비 약 5.9%로 변동성이 높다.", "마진 회복 지연, 생산·물류 차질, 추가 음의 자유현금흐름 가능성이 긍정 논리를 훼손할 수 있다.", "445500 종가 이탈 시 방어적 축소 또는 청산 조건이 명확하다." ], "reason_codes": [ "constructive_medium_term_thesis", "entry_wait_required", "price_below_key_moving_averages", "volume_confirmed_breakout_needed", "held_position_core_hold_only", "explicit_invalidation_level", "elevated_volatility" ], "review_required": false }, { "canonical_ticker": "005930.KS", "display_name": "삼성전자", "decision_source": "RULE+DEEP", "thesis_strength": 0.72, "timing_readiness": 0.34, "trigger_type": "breakout_confirmation", "trigger_horizon": "days_to_weeks", "trigger_quality": 0.78, "thesis_state": "constructive_but_not_confirmed", "semantic_summary": "Medium-term thesis is constructive for 005930.KS, supported by price above key moving averages, recovery fundamentals, AI memory demand, liquidity, and semiconductor cycle catalysts. Timing is not ready because the latest close remains below the 210500 breakout trigger, volume has faded after the spike, and MACD momentum is contracting. Current action is hold/wait, with entry only after breakout confirmation or a controlled support hold in the 196900-189800 zone.", "counter_evidence": [ "Latest valid close of 201000 is below the 210500 breakout level.", "Volume faded after the 2026-04-09 spike, weakening confirmation quality.", "MACD histogram contracted, indicating momentum has not re-accelerated.", "ATR near 10845 and daily volatility around 5.4% make immediate entry risk/reward less attractive.", "Position guidance explicitly says no new full-size entry today and only starter sizing after confirmation." ], "reason_codes": [ "constructive_medium_term_thesis", "entry_action_wait", "breakout_not_confirmed", "volume_confirmation_missing", "momentum_contraction", "high_atr_requires_small_starter", "existing_position_hold_only" ], "review_required": false }, { "canonical_ticker": "010950.KS", "display_name": "S-Oil", "decision_source": "RULE+DEEP", "thesis_strength": 0.66, "timing_readiness": 0.38, "trigger_type": "breakout_confirmation", "trigger_horizon": "days_to_weeks", "trigger_quality": 0.64, "thesis_state": "constructive_but_not_confirmed", "semantic_summary": "S-Oil thesis is directionally constructive: price is above key moving averages, MACD has improved, RSI is not overbought, and expected Q1 turnaround plus cash-flow/debt improvement support a bullish medium-term view. Timing is not ready for new action because the plan explicitly says WAIT/HOLD until either a KRW 124500 volume-backed daily breakout, a controlled KRW 116000-118000 support retest with momentum intact, or Q1/margin confirmation occurs. For the existing small holding, maintain hold but monitor KRW 116000 and KRW 111500 risk levels.", "counter_evidence": [ "Immediate entry is explicitly deferred despite constructive thesis.", "No confirmed KRW 124500 breakout with volume expansion is present.", "Recent spike toward KRW 176551 followed by retreat into KRW 105000-112000 area shows whipsaw risk.", "ATR is elevated at about 6.3% of price, weakening near-term risk reward.", "Q1 2026 earnings, Q2 refining margin outlook, working capital, and net debt improvement still need confirmation.", "Debt, liquidity, negative working capital, and capex burden keep sizing conservative." ], "reason_codes": [ "constructive_trend_above_moving_averages", "macd_positive_turn", "earnings_turnaround_expected_not_confirmed", "explicit_wait_entry_action", "breakout_requires_volume_confirmation", "pullback_support_alternative_unconfirmed", "high_atr_post_spike_volatility", "defined_downside_invalidation_levels", "held_position_hold_not_add" ], "review_required": false }, { "canonical_ticker": "012450.KS", "display_name": "한화에어로스페이스", "decision_source": "RULE+DEEP", "thesis_strength": 0.68, "timing_readiness": 0.38, "trigger_type": "breakout_confirmation", "trigger_horizon": "days_to_weeks", "trigger_quality": 0.74, "thesis_state": "constructive_but_not_confirmed", "semantic_summary": "Constructive medium-term thesis for 012450.KS is supported by price above major moving averages, improving MACD, supply-contract disclosures, defense export optionality, and solid recent financials. Timing is not actionable yet: the recommendation is HOLD/WAIT, with entry or add decisions deferred until either a volume-confirmed close above 1530000-1550000 or a controlled pullback defending the 10-day EMA/VWMA. Existing holding can be maintained, but no immediate buy or rebalance trigger is confirmed.", "counter_evidence": [ "2026-04-14 was reported as a non-trading day, so there is no same-day execution confirmation.", "2026-04-13 volume of 259390 was far below the March spike of 1295365, weakening breakout confirmation.", "ATR is elevated at about 89658 KRW, or roughly 5.86% of price, increasing timing and gap risk.", "The plan explicitly says NO_TRADE/WAIT and requires confirmation before any new or increased position.", "Relative weakness versus a strong KOSPI and possible defense-sector rotation remain risks." ], "reason_codes": [ "bullish_thesis_but_wait", "held_position_hold_only", "volume_confirmation_missing", "high_atr_timing_risk", "explicit_breakout_trigger_defined", "support_pullback_trigger_defined", "event_confirmation_pending" ], "review_required": false }, { "canonical_ticker": "034020.KS", "display_name": "두산에너빌리티", "decision_source": "RULE+DEEP", "thesis_strength": 0.62, "timing_readiness": 0.34, "trigger_type": "breakout_confirmation", "trigger_horizon": "days_to_weeks", "trigger_quality": 0.7, "thesis_state": "constructive_but_not_confirmed", "semantic_summary": "Medium-term thesis is constructive for 034020.KS due to intact long-term trend, nuclear/infrastructure catalysts, improved free cash flow, and reduced net debt, but the action is not yet timing-ready. Current recommendation is hold/wait: new buying requires confirmation via a close above 103,000 KRW with materially stronger volume and MACD improvement, or a defended 98,100-98,700 KRW support test followed by reclaim of 100,000 KRW. Existing position has defined downside risk lines at 98,100 KRW and 95,000 KRW.", "counter_evidence": [ "MACD remains negative and histogram improvement has not yet confirmed a bullish turn.", "Recent rebound volume of 1,746,075 shares is weak versus prior 8-9 million share activity.", "Price remains near resistance around 100,000-103,000 KRW, so chasing is explicitly discouraged.", "Forward PE near 93x, low margin/ROE, high beta, and interest expense burden argue against full-size exposure before confirmation.", "Nuclear project headlines still need contract value, margin, schedule, and attributable economics confirmation." ], "reason_codes": [ "constructive_medium_term_thesis", "entry_wait_conditioned_on_breakout", "volume_confirmation_required", "macd_not_confirmed", "support_reclaim_alternative_trigger", "held_position_with_defined_risk_lines", "valuation_and_volatility_constrain_sizing" ], "review_required": false }, { "canonical_ticker": "042700.KS", "display_name": "한미반도체", "decision_source": "RULE+DEEP", "thesis_strength": 0.66, "timing_readiness": 0.38, "trigger_type": "breakout_confirmation", "trigger_horizon": "days_to_weeks", "trigger_quality": 0.72, "thesis_state": "constructive_but_not_confirmed", "semantic_summary": "한미반도체의 HBM/TC본더 장비 사이클과 수익성, 재무 여력은 우호적이어서 보유 관점의 중기 thesis는 유지된다. 다만 286000원 저항 확인 후 거래량이 크게 줄고 종가가 밀렸으며, 현재 가격은 단기 평균선 바로 위에 머물러 즉시 증액이나 신규 진입 타이밍은 확인되지 않았다. 핵심 트리거는 286000원 종가 돌파와 거래량 회복, 또는 271000~274000원 지지 확인 후 강한 반등이다.", "counter_evidence": [ "286000원 저항 확인 후 2026-04-10 거래량 1087130주에서 2026-04-13 거래량 387276주로 감소했다.", "종가가 286000원에서 276500원으로 밀려 즉시 추격 매수의 확률 우위가 부족하다.", "PER 54배 수준의 프리미엄과 2025-12-31 매출 및 영업이익 둔화는 신규 수주와 가이던스 확인 전 부담이다.", "ATR 약 19400원, 종가 대비 약 7% 변동성과 베타 2.245로 포지션 확대 전 확인 필요성이 크다." ], "reason_codes": [ "bullish_thesis_waiting_for_confirmation", "resistance_rejection_needs_volume_recovery", "specific_breakout_trigger_defined", "support_retest_alternative_defined", "valuation_and_growth_visibility_risk", "held_position_but_no_add_signal" ], "review_required": false }, { "canonical_ticker": "058470.KQ", "display_name": "리노공업", "decision_source": "RULE+DEEP", "thesis_strength": 0.64, "timing_readiness": 0.36, "trigger_type": "breakout_confirmation", "trigger_horizon": "days_to_weeks", "trigger_quality": 0.66, "thesis_state": "constructive_but_not_confirmed", "semantic_summary": "Constructive medium-term thesis for 058470.KQ based on price above key moving averages, positive MACD, non-overbought RSI, high margins, strong liquidity, low leverage, and positive free cash flow. Timing is not actionable now because the plan explicitly says WAIT/NO_TRADE at the latest close near 113400 and requires confirmation: either a close above 116800 with more than 1000000 shares and relative strength recovery, or a controlled pullback near 110000 that holds 105000-106000 and then recovers. Existing small holding can be held while support remains intact, but new/add exposure is not confirmed.", "counter_evidence": [ "Latest close around 113400 is below the 116800 breakout trigger and does not justify immediate new entry.", "Recent volume around 578766 is below the required 1000000-share confirmation threshold and below desired breakout participation.", "Stock showed relative weakness during a strong KOSDAQ session, so market participation has not yet broadened into the name.", "ATR near 6.4% makes timing and sizing riskier without confirmation.", "Forward PE near 36 requires revenue reacceleration, while recent revenue declined from 2025-06-30 to 2025-12-31.", "A daily close below 105000 would invalidate the current support structure for existing exposure." ], "reason_codes": [ "bullish_thesis_but_wait_action", "clear_breakout_trigger_not_met", "volume_confirmation_required", "relative_strength_unconfirmed", "support_break_invalidation_defined", "premium_valuation_needs_fundamental_confirmation", "held_position_risk_managed_not_addable" ], "review_required": false }, { "canonical_ticker": "064400.KS", "display_name": "LG CNS", "decision_source": "RULE+DEEP", "thesis_strength": 0.62, "timing_readiness": 0.34, "trigger_type": "breakout_confirmation", "trigger_horizon": "days_to_weeks", "trigger_quality": 0.58, "thesis_state": "constructive_but_not_confirmed", "semantic_summary": "LG CNS has a constructive medium-term thesis supported by profitability, valuation, liquidity, dividend yield, and potential public SI/token securities/AI infrastructure catalysts, but timing is not confirmed. The stock is held, and the appropriate near-term action is HOLD/WAIT because the latest cited close remains below the 63000-63300 resistance zone, the 50D SMA, and the 200D SMA. Actionability depends on a close above 63300 with volume expansion, followed by acceptance above the 50D SMA; downside risk is managed around 59680 and the 59000-60000 defense zone, with 55800 as major thesis invalidation.", "counter_evidence": [ "Latest cited close of 60900 remains below 63000-63300 resistance, 50D SMA 64832.36, and 200D SMA 65877.95.", "Prior recovery attempt around 63300 failed and price pulled back to 60900.", "Entry action is explicitly WAIT/NO_TRADE, with no new full position recommended today.", "Catalysts such as contract details, K-Edufine participation, token securities implementation, and AI infrastructure adoption remain unconfirmed.", "High ATR near 5% of price requires smaller sizing and closing-level confirmation rather than immediate execution." ], "reason_codes": [ "constructive_fundamental_thesis", "held_position_hold_only", "breakout_not_confirmed", "below_key_moving_averages", "resistance_reclaim_required", "volume_confirmation_required", "catalysts_unconfirmed", "downside_defense_defined" ], "review_required": false }, { "canonical_ticker": "095340.KS", "display_name": "ISC", "decision_source": "RULE+DEEP", "thesis_strength": 0.68, "timing_readiness": 0.34, "trigger_type": "breakout_confirmation", "trigger_horizon": "days_to_weeks", "trigger_quality": 0.64, "thesis_state": "constructive_but_not_confirmed", "semantic_summary": "Medium-term thesis is constructive for held ISC exposure due to strong margins, net cash, AI/CPO test-socket narrative, ETF inclusion, and sector risk appetite. Timing is not actionable yet: the plan explicitly says NO_TRADE/WAIT and requires a volume-backed close above the 250,000-253,000 VWMA/supply zone, follow-through above 250,000, RSI/MACD improvement, and later breakouts at 271,000 and 292,500 before adding.", "counter_evidence": [ "Current recommendation is NO_TRADE with entry_action WAIT, not immediate buy/add.", "MACD is falling with negative histogram, RSI is below 50 at about 46.66, and short-term buying control has weakened.", "Volatility is elevated, with ATR near 25,120 KRW and a recent 48,500 KRW intraday range.", "Price still needs to reclaim 250,000-253,000 with volume and hold above 250,000 on the next session.", "A close below 240,000 on volume would shift the setup toward tactical reduction, while a 50-day SMA break near 201,390 would damage the medium-term thesis." ], "reason_codes": [ "bullish_medium_term_thesis", "entry_wait_not_confirmed", "breakout_trigger_required", "momentum_below_confirmation", "volume_confirmation_needed", "held_position_core_hold", "clear_downside_invalidation" ], "review_required": false }, { "canonical_ticker": "278470.KS", "display_name": "에이피알", "decision_source": "RULE+DEEP", "thesis_strength": 0.74, "timing_readiness": 0.38, "trigger_type": "breakout_confirmation", "trigger_horizon": "days_to_weeks", "trigger_quality": 0.72, "thesis_state": "constructive_but_not_confirmed", "semantic_summary": "Thesis is constructive: trend is intact above key moving averages, momentum has re-accelerated, and fundamentals/catalysts are supportive. Timing is not actionable yet because price is extended near KRW 408,500 resistance, RSI is near overbought, ATR is high, and volume has faded after the prior surge. Best read is hold existing small exposure and wait for either a controlled pullback holding KRW 356,000-365,000 or a volume-confirmed close above KRW 408,500 with follow-through/retest.", "counter_evidence": [ "Current price is close to KRW 408,500 resistance and stretched versus the 10-day, 50-day, and 200-day averages.", "RSI near 68 and ATR around 6.24% indicate elevated short-term timing risk.", "Volume faded from 868,166 shares on 2026-04-09 to 286,905 shares on 2026-04-13, so breakout participation is not yet confirmed.", "Q1 earnings, margin durability, inventory control, and U.S./Europe sell-through still need confirmation against elevated expectations." ], "reason_codes": [ "bullish_thesis_but_wait", "extended_near_resistance", "volume_confirmation_missing", "pullback_or_breakout_trigger_required", "held_position_manage_risk", "fundamental_event_confirmation_pending" ], "review_required": false } ] }